Insider,
You are posting to a forum populated in large part by those going the DIY route. Many people come back and post their success, but you are calling successful posters morons?
You suggest people do research. This site is where many people land who are actively researching their options.
I do agree that there are ample examples of poorly thought out, incomplete or blatantly wrong answers, suggestions and feedback on this forum. Given the volume on this site though, it is a small enough percentage for a public forum.
Definitely,
I would argue that the 50% loss of revenue you mentioned above is in large part representative of consumers who were ill suited for settlement in the first place.
The industry is not dead with these new rules. Many companies will choose to close up, many marketing only companies will certainly close up, many lead generators will move on.
Whats left will be highly scrutinized starting 10/27/10. Those that survive that scrutiny will do well.
My guess is that the industry shrinks by half or more.
To Be,
Your last post makes some great points. Those points will be no less important to consider when companies are charging only fees based on success. Many of the companies that stick around will set fees at 25-35% of savings. Take 50% savings of original balance submitted at the time a consumer enrolls with a settlement company as an aggregate settlement average and you have the same high fees resulting in longer program duration and increased risk of lawsuits that are prevalent now.
One big difference is that consumers will be screened more heavily for suitability. The fee will now have to be based on the difference between the balance of the account at the time it was enrolled into a program and the settlement amount. Added fees and interest cannot be figured into the % of savings fee.
Hopefully companies will not wait 2-3 years to figure out that accepting people into a program they are not well suited to be in could mean working for free, or close to it, in months 24 and beyond.
Mileage may vary